This Edition

The Fed held rates. Then it removed the part where it said it would cut them.

▶ What changed

At the 16–17 June meeting, the FOMC (the Federal Open Market Committee — the group inside the Federal Reserve that sets US interest rates) held the federal funds target range at 3.5–3.75%. That part was expected. The part that wasn’t: they dropped the prior easing bias from their statement entirely and raised the median projected policy rate for 2026 to around 3.8%, with markets now pricing in roughly 30 basis points of hikes by year-end. Core PCE inflation (the Fed’s preferred measure of underlying price pressure) was revised up to 3.3% for 2026. The direction of travel has reversed.

▶ What this actually means

You moved abroad, or you split your life between the US and somewhere else. Some of your savings are in USD, some are in GBP, INR, or AED. At some point you planned to convert a chunk — to buy property, fund a pension, cover living costs, or simply park money where it works harder. That plan was probably built around a dollar that got weaker as rates fell. That scenario is no longer the base case. A Fed holding rates at 3.5–3.75% with the possibility of hiking further keeps the dollar stronger for longer. It also keeps US money market yields attractive — which means USD cash sitting idle is actually earning something, but currency conversions into GBP or INR become more expensive the longer you wait. Meanwhile, currencies in emerging markets feel more pressure when US rates stay elevated, which affects the real value of assets you hold in India or elsewhere.

◆ Anita’s take  Investment Returns

The Fed removing its easing bias is not a minor adjustment to language. It is a signal that the playbook most globally mobile professionals were running — wait for cuts, then move money — may need to be rewritten. A stronger dollar for longer could reduce what your USD income is actually worth when converted into your day-to-day currency. It could also increase the cost of any dollar-denominated borrowing you have sitting against non-dollar assets. The FX translation effect is often invisible until it lands on a statement. If you have a large cross-border transfer sitting in the “do it later” pile, later may now cost you more than sooner. That is worth modelling with actual numbers before any decision is made.

Settel

Settel shows you what your income and assets are actually worth across currencies — after tax, after inflation, after FX. If the dollar holding at these levels changes your picture, Settel is where you see how.